| 欧素英，刁秋月，李博，蔡华阳，林凯荣.珠江磨刀门河口年最高水位的影响因素辨识及其联合依赖关系研究[J].海洋工程,2026,(1):194~208 |
| 珠江磨刀门河口年最高水位的影响因素辨识及其联合依赖关系研究 |
| Identification of the influencing factors and their joint dependence relationships analysis for the annual maximum water level in the Modaomen Estuary of the Pearl River |
| 投稿时间：2024-11-08 修订日期：2025-01-29 |
| DOI：10.16483/j.issn.1005-9865.2026.01.018 |
| 中文关键词: 极端高水位 径流 潮汐 风暴增水 联合分布 |
| 英文关键词:extreme high water level runoff tide storm surge joint distribution |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（52279080）；广东省自然科学基金-卓越青年团队项目（2023B1515040028） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 径流、潮汐与风暴增水等因素导致的极端高水位直接威胁河口三角洲地区的水安全，这些因素的复杂相互作用使得洪潮灾害的预报和防治变得更加困难。以珠江磨刀门河口为例，基于长期实测水位数据，采用流量驱动下的调和分析模型RTIDE，提取年最高水位信号中的平均海平面，径流、潮汐和风暴增水信号，定量研究这些因素与年最高水位的联合依赖关系。结果表明：1）海平面上升对年最高水位的影响逐年增大，河口风暴增水对年最高水位的贡献也呈现增大趋势。自2000年起，多数年份中，风暴增水已成为年最高水位的主导贡献因素，其贡献率超过50%，而径流和潮汐的贡献则有所减小。2）风暴增水与年最高水位的联合依赖关系最为显著，90%以上的年最高水位事件与强风暴增水事件相关；而年最高水位与潮水位的依赖关系较弱，各年最高水位事件可能与0.23~1.28 m范围内任意的中、高潮位事件组合。3）近50年来，三灶和灯笼山的年最高水位与风暴增水同时出现高水位事件的概率达到42.2%~61.7%，竹银站则达到18.3%，略高于年最高水位与洪水的遭遇概率；然而，各站同时遭遇大洪水（径流贡献高水位）和强风暴增水的条件概率较低，低于0.1%。该研究有助于深入理解河口地区极端高水位形成的机理，并为河口三角洲的管理、防灾减灾及堤防建设等提供重要科学依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Extreme high water levels resulting from runoff, tides, and storm surges directly threaten water security in estuarine delta regions. The complex interactions among these factors make the prediction and mitigation of flood and tidal disasters more challenging. This study takes the Modaomen Estuary of the Pearl River as a case study. Based on long-term observed water level data, the flow-driven harmonic analysis model RTIDE was used to extract the signals of annual mean sea level, runoff, tides, and mean sea level storm surges from the annual maximum water levels, and to quantitatively analyze the joint dependence between these factors and the annual highest levels. The results show that: 1) The impact of sea level rise on the annual maximum water level has been increasing year by year, with the contribution of storm surges in the estuary also showing an upward trend. Since 2000, storm surges have become the dominant contributing factor to the annual maximum water level in most years, with a contribution rate exceeding 50%, while the relative contributions of runoff and tides have decreased. 2) The joint dependence between storm surges and the annual maximum water level is the most significant, with more than 90% of the annual maximum events being linked to strong storm surges. In contrast, the dependence between the annual maximum water level and tidal levels is weaker, as each annual maximum event may coincide with any medium to high tide within the range of 0.23 m to 1.28 m. 3) Over the past 50 years, the probability of simultaneous high-water events involving the annual maximum level and storm surges at the Sanzao and Denglongshan stations has ranged from 42.2% to 61.7%. At the Zhuyin station, this probability has reached 18.3%, slightly higher than the probability of high-water and flood events coinciding. However, the conditional probability of simultaneous occurrence of major floods (runoff-driven high water levels) and strong storm surges at each station is low (less than 0.1%). This study helps clarify the formation mechanisms of extreme high water levels in estuarine areas and provides an important scientific basis for management, disaster prevention and mitigation, and dyke construction in estuarine deltas. |
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