| 林奖勤，张璐璐，廖晨聪，王舸，张泽超.基于不确定性的海上风电单桩p-y曲线法的模型误差评估与可靠度分析研究[J].海洋工程,2025,(3):105~117 |
| 基于不确定性的海上风电单桩p-y曲线法的模型误差评估与可靠度分析研究 |
| Model error assessment and reliability analysis of the offshore wind turbine monopile p-y curve method based on uncertainty |
| 投稿时间：2024-05-16 修订日期：2024-08-06 |
| DOI：10.16483/j.issn.1005-9865.2025.03.010 |
| 中文关键词: 风电单桩 p-y曲线法 水平承载力 模型误差 不确定性分析 可靠度分析 |
| 英文关键词:offshore wind turbine monopile p-y curve method lateral bearing capacity model error uncertainty analysis reliability analysis |
| 基金项目:中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研资助项目（WWKY-2020-0741）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（52025094）；上海市教育委员会科研创新计划项目（2021-01-07-00-02-E00089） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 针对海上风电单桩水平试桩数据有限、模型误差评估困难的问题，提出了一种基于有限试桩数据条件下的海上风电大直径单桩水平承载力p-y曲线法模型误差二阶段评估方法。首先开展超重力离心模型试验，获取原位应力水平下不同桩径与埋深比的风电单桩的水平承载力数据，并结合既有文献公开的有限试桩数据，建立风电单桩水平静载数据库；然后建立三维有限元基准模型，将其作为实测数据与p-y曲线法之间的过渡，利用所建数据库评估基准模型自身的误差；接着通过算例扩充得到基准模型相对p-y曲线法的偏差系数η的概率分布；最后将与η结合得到模型误差的概率分布。研究表明，模型误差的均值与桩-土相对刚度的对数呈线性关系。工程案例研究显示，对于某海上风电场第41号机位的单桩，不考虑模型误差则单桩可靠度指标β为4.33，考虑模型误差得到可靠度指标β为6.91。这表明，忽略p-y曲线法的模型误差可导致设计偏于保守。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Due to the limited availability of lateral pile test data for offshore wind turbine monopiles and the challenges in assessing model errors, this study proposes a two-stage evaluation method for the model error of the p-y curve method under limited test data conditions. First, a high-gravity centrifuge model test is conducted to obtain lateral bearing capacity data for offshore wind turbine monopiles with varying pile diameter and embedded length-to-diameter ratios under in-situ stress conditions. These data, combined with existing publicly available test data, form a database of monopile lateral static load tests. Next, a three-dimensional finite element benchmark model is established as an intermediary between measured data and the p-y curve method, and its intrinsic error is evaluated using the developed database. The benchmark model is then used to expand case studies, deriving the probability distribution of the deviation coefficient relative to the p-y curve method. Finally, the probability distribution of the model error is obtained by combining η with ?. The results indicate that the mean model error exhibits a linear relationship with the logarithmic of pile-soil relative stiffness . A case study on the monopile at position 41 of an offshore wind farm shows that, without considering model error , the reliability index β is 4.33 ,whereas incorporating model error increases β to 6.91. This demonstrates that neglecting model error in the p-y curve method can lead to an overly conservative design. |
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